Research Catalog

Title

Modeling terrorism risk to the air transportation system : an independent assessment of TSA's risk management analysis tool and associated methods / Andrew R. Morral ... [et al.].

Publication

Santa Monica, CA : Rand Corporation, 2012.

Items in the Library & Off-site

Details

Additional Authors

• Morral, Andrew R.
• National Defense Research Institute (U.S.)
• Rand Corporation.
• RAND Homeland Security and Defense Center.

Description

xxii, 146 p. : col. ill.; 23 cm.

Summary

RAND evaluated a terrorism risk modeling tool developed by the Transportation Security Administration and Boeing to help guide program planning for aviation security. This tool, the Risk Management Analysis Tool, or RMAT, is used by TSA to estimate the terrorism risk-reduction benefits attributable to new and existing security programs, technologies, and procedures. RMAT simulates terrorist behavior and success in attacking vulnerabilities in the domestic commercial air transportation system, drawing on estimates of terrorist resources, capabilities, preferences, decision processes, intelligence collection, and operational planning. It describes how the layers of security protecting the air transportation system are likely to perform when confronted by more than 60 types of attacks, drawing on detailed blast and other physical modeling to understand the damage produced by different weapons and attacks, and calculating expected loss of life and the direct and indirect economic consequences of that damage. This report describes RAND's conclusions about the validity of RMAT for TSA's intended uses and its recommendations for how TSA should perform cost-benefit analyses of its security programs.

Series Statement

RAND Corporation monograph series ; MG1241

Uniform Title

Rand Corporation monograph series ; MG1241.

Subjects

• Aeronautics, Commercial > Security measures > United States > Evaluation
• Risk management > Mathematical models
• Aeronautics > United States > Safety measures > Evaluation
• United States > Transportation Security Administration > Rules and practice > Evaluation
• Terrorism > United States > Prevention

Note

• At head of title: RAND Homeland Security and Defense Center.

Bibliography (note)

• Includes bibliographical references: p. 135-146.

Funding (note)

• The research described in this report was prepared for the Transportation Security Administration and conducted within the RAND National Defense Research Institute ... under Contract W74V8H-06-C-0002.

Contents

Introduction -- RMAT adversary model -- RMAT defender model -- RMAT data requirements and sources -- RMAT model performance and management -- Supporting TSA management and investment decisions with RMAT -- Conclusions -- Requirements for a TSA risk assessment -- Bibliography.

Call Number

JFE 13-3456

ISBN

• 083307685X
• 9780833076854 (pbk.)

LCCN

2012953351

OCLC

825197993

Title

Modeling terrorism risk to the air transportation system : an independent assessment of TSA's risk management analysis tool and associated methods / Andrew R. Morral ... [et al.].

Imprint

Santa Monica, CA : Rand Corporation, 2012.

Series

RAND Corporation monograph series ; MG1241

Rand Corporation monograph series ; MG1241.

Bibliography

Includes bibliographical references: p. 135-146.

Funding

The research described in this report was prepared for the Transportation Security Administration and conducted within the RAND National Defense Research Institute ... under Contract W74V8H-06-C-0002.

Connect to:

http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/monographs/2012/RAND_MG1241.pdf

Added Author

Morral, Andrew R.

National Defense Research Institute (U.S.)

Rand Corporation.

RAND Homeland Security and Defense Center.

Research Call Number

JFE 13-3456