- Additional Authors
- Description
- 91 p.; 21 x 29.7cm.
- Summary
- This paper presents the results from a new model for projecting growth of OECD and major non-OECD economies over the next 50 years as well as imbalances that arise. A baseline scenario assuming gradual structural reform and fiscal consolidation to stabilise government-debt-to GDP ratios is compared with variant scenarios assuming deeper policy reforms. One main finding is that growth of the non-OECD G20 countries will continue to outpace OECD countries, but the difference will narrow substantially over coming decades. In parallel, the next 50 years will see major changes in the composition of the world economy. In the absence of ambitious policy changes, global imbalances will emerge which could undermine growth. However, ambitious fiscal consolidation efforts and deep structural reforms can both raise long-run living standards and reduce the risks of major disruptions to growth by mitigating global imbalances.
- Series Statement
- OECD Economics Department Working Papers, 1815-1973 ; no.1000
- Uniform Title
- OECD Economics Department Working Papers, no.1000.
- Subject
- Economics
- LCCN
- 10.1787/5k4ddxpr2fmr-en
- OCLC
- oecd-lib
- Title
Long-Term Growth Scenarios [electronic resource] / Åsa Johansson ... [et al]
- Imprint
Paris : OECD Publishing, 2013.
- Series
OECD Economics Department Working Papers, 1815-1973 ; no.1000
OECD Economics Department Working Papers, 1815-1973 ; no.1000.
- Connect to:
- Indexed Term
Economics
- Added Author
Johansson, Åsa.
Guillemette, Yvan.
Murtin, Fabrice.
Turner, David.
Nicoletti, Giuseppe.
de la Maisonneuve, Christine.
Bagnoli, Philip.
Bousquet, Guillaume.
Spinelli, Francesca.
- Other Standard Identifier
10.1787/5k4ddxpr2fmr-en doi