Research Catalog

Title

Expert adjustments of model forecasts : theory, practice and strategies for improvement / Philip Hans Franses.

Author

Franses, Philip Hans, 1963-

Publication

Cambridge, United Kingdom : Cambridge University Press, 2014.

Items in the Library & Off-site

Details

Description

xvi, 127 pages; 24 cm

Summary

• "This monograph aims to collect recent theoretical insights and various empirical results for a rapidly developing area concerning the analysis of business and economic forecasts. Strictly following econometric textbooks one would be tempted to assume that forecasts are the outcome of a careful modeling exercise and that the econometric model builder delivers the forecast to an end user"--
• "To what extent should anybody who has to make model forecasts generated from detailed data analysis adjust their forecasts based on their own intuition? In this book, Philip Hans Franses, one of Europe's leading econometricians, presents the notion that many publicly available forecasts have experienced an 'expert's touch', and questions whether this type of intervention is useful and if a lighter adjustment would be more beneficial. Covering an extensive research area, this accessible book brings together current theoretical insights and new empirical results to examine expert adjustment from an econometric perspective. The author's analysis is based on a range of real forecasts and the datasets upon which the forecasters relied. The various motivations behind experts' modifications are considered, and guidelines for creating more useful and reliable adjusted forecasts are suggested. This book will appeal to academics and practitioners with an interest in forecasting methodology"--

Subjects

• Econometric models
• Economic forecasting
• Ökonometrisches Modell
• Business forecasting
• Wirtschaft
• Prognose
• BUSINESS & ECONOMICS > Econometrics

Bibliography (note)

• Includes bibliographical references (pages 119-125) and index.

Contents

Preface -- 1. Introduction -- 2. Optimal behaviour of experts -- 3. Observed behaviour of experts -- 4. How accurate are expert-adjusted forecasts? -- 5. How can forecasts be improved? -- 6. Conclusion, limitations and implications -- Data appendix.

ISBN

• 9781107081598
• 1107081599
• 9781107441613
• 1107441617

LCCN

• 2014021767
• 99961325250
• 40024230723

Owning Institutions

Columbia University Libraries