Research Catalog

Title

Testing the effects of confidence- and security-building measures in a crisis : two political-military games / James P. Kahan ... [et al.].

Publication

Santa Monica, CA : Rand, 1987.

Items in the Library & Off-site

Holdings

Details

Additional Authors

• Kahan, James P.
• Rand Corporation
• United States. Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy

Description

xv, 59 p.; 23 cm.

Summary

This report presents the results of two political-military games played at RAND in the spring of 1986 to investigate how possible European confidence- and security-building measures (CSBMs) might affect interaction between the United States and the Soviet Union in a crisis situation. The objective was to examine which of three hypotheses best describes the most likely effects of CSBMs in a crisis: (1) CSBMs can help make crucial distinctions/decisions; (2) CSBMs neither help nor harm decisionmaking; (3) CSBMs can cause more harm than good. The games provided no evidence that CSBMs could reduce the risks of miscalculation or misunderstanding. However, neither did the CSBMs appear to exacerbate misunderstandings. The players tended to focus on their own beliefs and to ignore evidence bearing on the intentions of the other side. The study indicates a need for further research on such important issues as the interplay between intimidation and surprise. Keywords: Confidence Level; Security; Crisis Management; East West Relations; Decision Making; War Games.

Subject

• Arms control > Mathematical models
• Game theory
• Game Theory
• Europe > Mathematical models

Note

• "Prepared for the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy."
• "December 1987."
• "R-3517-USDP."

Processing Action (note)

• committed to retain

ISBN

083300851X

LCCN

^^^87009798^

OCLC

15632456

Owning Institutions

Harvard Library