Research Catalog

Title

Onward through the fog : uncertainty and management adaptation in systems analysis and design / James S. Hodges, with Raymond A. Pyles.

Author

Hodges, James S.

Publication

Santa Monica, CA : Rand Corporation, [1990]

Items in the Library & Off-site

Holdings

Details

Additional Authors

• Pyles, Raymond A.
• Rand Corporation.
• United States. Air Force
• United States. Army
• United States. Department of Defense. Office of the Secretary of Defense.

Description

xi, 32 p.; 23 cm.

Summary

Policy analysis has always involved great uncertainty. Tools have been available for handling some of that uncertainty, but policy analysis work in many fields has fallen into stereotyped problem formulations and analytical approaches. In particular, treatments of uncertainty are typically incomplete and often conceptually wrong. This report argues that these shortcomings produce pervasive systematic biases in analyses. It describes and discusses the common mode of policy analysis and identifies its two main shortcomings--omission of crucial sources of uncertainty and neglect of systems' ability to respond to the unexpected. It categorizes some varieties of uncertainty relevant to policy analysis and presents examples of ways they are commonly represented. Finally, it discusses designing and evaluating systems, and presents a collection of generic strategies for uncertain situations.

Subject

• Policy sciences
• Uncertainty
• System analysis
• System design

Note

• "R-3760-AF/A/OSD."
• "July 1990."
• "Prepared for the United States Air Force, United States Army [and the] Office of the Secretary of Defense."

Bibliography (note)

• Includes bibliographical references (p. 29-32).

Processing Action (note)

• committed to retain

ISBN

0833010735

OCLC

22711883

Owning Institutions

Harvard Library