Research Catalog

Title

Whither al-Anbar Province? : five scenarios through 2011 / James B. Bruce, Jeffrey Martini.

Author

Bruce, James B.

Publication

Santa Monica, CA : RAND, 2010.

Items in the Library & Off-site

Details

Additional Authors

• Martini, Jeffrey
• National Defense Research Institute (U.S.)

Description

xiii, 12 p. : ill. (some col.); 28 cm.

Summary

The withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq will create a vacuum in the way security is achieved and power is exercised throughout Iraq. As U.S. Marines draw down in al-Anbar Province, significant changes can be expected throughout the province in security, political, economic, and even cultural relationships. In late 2008, RAND convened a series of three one-day workshops bringing together civilian and military analysts and practitioners with experience on al-Anbar Province or comparable expertise on Iraq. Workshops participants identified five relatively distinct futures, or scenarios, for al-Anbar that provide plausible but alternative trajectories for the province between early 2009 and the end of 2011. These scenarios resulted from extensive consideration of the major assumptions that may underlie any future projections and the testing of those assumptions in a variety of exercises. The deliberations also focused on the major factors that will shape the development of one or another scenario.

Series Statement

RAND Corporation occasional paper series ; OP-278-MCIA

Uniform Title

Occasional paper (Rand Corporation) OP-278-MCIA.

Subject

• United States. > Congresses
• 2000-2099
• Social prediction > Iraq > Anbār (Province) > Case studies > Congresses
• Social change > Iraq > Anbār (Province) > Congresses
• Iraq War, 2003-2011 > Influence > Congresses
• Disengagement (Military science) > Congresses
• Anbār (Iraq : Province) > Politics and government > Forecasting > 21st century > Congresses
• Anbār (Iraq : Province) > Social conditions > Forecasting > 21st century > Congresses
• Anbār (Iraq : Province) > Economic conditions > Forecasting > 21st century > Congresses
• United States > Armed Forces > Congresses

Genre/Form

• Conference papers and proceedings
• Case studies

Note

• Report of results of three RAND workshops held in November and December 2008.
• "The research...was conducted in the National Defense Research Institute."

Bibliography (note)

• Includes bibliographical references.

Additional Formats (note)

• Also available via the Internet.

Funding (note)

• Prepared for the Marine Corps Intelligence Activity

Processing Action (note)

• committed to retain

Contents

Executive summary -- What does the future hold for Iraq's al-Anbar Province? -- How this study was conducted -- Implications -- Major takeaways -- Study approach -- Assumptions -- Drivers -- Scenario A: Sunni fight for survival -- Scenario B: Every clan for itself -- Scenario C: Iron fist -- Scenario D: Glueless in Baghdad -- Scenario E: Path to stability -- The importance of drivers -- Indications and warnings -- Conclusions and implications.

ISBN

• 9780833048035 (pbk. : alk. paper)
• 0833048031 (pbk. : alk. paper)

LCCN

^^2010004239

OCLC

• 503596150
• SCSB-10095558

Owning Institutions

Harvard Library