Research Catalog

Title

Known unknowns : unconventional "strategic shocks" in defense strategy development / Nathan Freier.

Author

Freier, Nathan.

Publication

Carlisle, Pa. : Peacekeeping and Stability Operations Institute and Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, [2008]

Items in the Library & Off-site

Details

Additional Authors

• Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/n80120847
• Peacekeeping and Stability Operations Institute. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/no2008165714

Description

viii, 44 p.; 23 cm.

Series Statement

PKSOI papers

Uniform Title

PKSOI papers.

Alternative Title

Unconventional "strategic shocks" in defense strategy development

Subject

• Military art and science
• Strategy
• Surprise (Military science)
• United States. Dept. of Defense > Rules and practice

Note

• "November 2008."
• "The current defense team confronted a game-changing "strategic shock" in its first 8 months in office. The next team would be well-advised to expect the same. Defense-relevant strategic shocks jolt convention to such an extent that they force sudden, unanticipated change in the Department of Defense's (DoD) perceptions about threat, vulnerability, and strategic response. Their unanticipated onset forces the entire defense enterprise to reorient and restructure institutions, employ capabilities in unexpected ways, and confront challenges that are fundamentally different than those routinely considered in defense calculations. The likeliest and most dangerous future shocks will be unconventional. They will not emerge from thunderbolt advances in an opponent's military capabilities. Rather, they will manifest themselves in ways far outside established defense convention. Most will be nonmilitary in origin and character, and not, by definition, defense-specific events conducive to the conventional employment of the DoD enterprise. They will rise from an analytical no man's land separating well-considered, stock and trade defense contingencies and pure defense speculation. Their origin is most likely to be in irregular, catastrophic, and hybrid threats of "purpose" (emerging from hostile design) or threats of "context" (emerging in the absence of hostile purpose or design). Of the two, the latter is both the least understood and the most dangerous." -- P. vii.

Bibliography (note)

• Includes bibliographical references (p. 37-44).

Additional Formats (note)

• Also available via the Internet.

Contents

Summary -- Introduction : the failure of imagination -- "Known unknowns" : predictable but unpredicted strategic shocks -- Trapped by convention : seeing the future we want? -- Seeing the whole future : incorporating shocks in defense strategy -- Routinizing imagination : plausible unconventional shocks -- Conclusion : Avoiding the next blue ribbon panel - or worse.

ISBN

• 158487368X
• 9781584873686

LCCN

2009366047

Owning Institutions

Princeton University Library