Research Catalog

Title

Presidential succession scenarios in Egypt and their impact on U.S.-Egyptian strategic relations / Gregory Aftandilian.

Author

Aftandilian, Gregory L.

Publication

Carlisle, PA : Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, [2011]

Items in the Library & Off-site

Details

Additional Authors

Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/n80120847

Description

x, 48 p.; 23 cm.

Summary

Although this monograph was written before the pro-democracy demonstrations in Egypt in January 2011, it examines the important question as to who might succeed President Hosni Mubarak by analyzing several possible scenarios and what they would mean for U.S. strategic relations with Egypt. The monograph first describes the importance of Egypt in the Middle East region and gives an overview of the U.S.-Egyptian strategic relationship. It then examines the power structure in Egypt to include the presidency, the military, and the ruling party. The monograph next explores various succession scenarios. Although some of the scenarios outlined in this monograph are no longer viable--for example, President Mubarak is now on trial for complicity in the deaths of protesters during the uprising that resulted in his ouster from power--other scenarios remain plausible, particularly given what we see as the more prominent role of the Egyptian military in this fluid political situation. In addition, some of the possible presidential successors that the author mentions have now risen to higher positions in the Egyptian government. The author also discusses the sensitive issue of the Muslim Brotherhood, Egypt's most organized opposition group that is opposed to many U.S. policies. He examines a scenario of a Muslim Brotherhood-dominated government, but notes that this is unlikely to occur unless both the Brotherhood and the Egyptian military split apart.

Series Statement

External Research Associates Program monographs

Alternative Title

• Presidential succession scenarios in Egypt and their impact on US-Egyptian strategic relations
• Presidential succession scenarios in Egypt and their impact on United States-Egyptian strategic relations

Subject

• Civil-military relations > Egypt
• Constitutional law > Egypt
• Egypt > Forecasting
• Egypt > Foreign relations > United States
• Egypt > Strategic aspects
• Elections > Egypt
• Jamʻīyat al-Ikhwān al-Muslimīn (Egypt)
• Mubārak, Muḥammad Ḥusnī, 1928-
• Political campaigns > Egypt
• Political leadership > Egypt
• Political parties > Egypt
• Presidents > Succession > Egypt
• United States > Foreign relations > Egypt

Note

• "September 2011."
• "External Research Associates Program monograph."

Bibliography (note)

• Includes bibliographical references (p. 43-48).

Additional Formats (note)

• Also available online in PDF format from Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) web site. Adobe Acrobat Reader required.

Contents

Summary -- Introduction -- The power structure in Egypt -- Constitutional rules, changes and procedures -- Succession scenarios through legal mechanisms -- Extra-legal scenario successions -- How would these scenarios impact U.S.-Egyptian relations? -- Legal succession scenarios -- Extra-legal scenarios -- Policy recommendations. How should U.S. officials conduct themselves in these scenarios?

ISBN

• 9781584875062
• 1584875062

Owning Institutions

Princeton University Library