Research Catalog

Title

Preparing for Korean unification : scenarios and implications / Jonathan D. Pollack, Chung Min Lee.

Author

Pollack, Jonathan D.

Publication

Santa Monica, CA : RAND, ©1999.

Items in the Library & Off-site

Details

Additional Authors

Lee, Chung Min.

Description

xx, 98 pages : map; 23 cm.

Summary

This study examines four alternative scenarios that would result in the unification of the Korean peninsula. The authors describe the defining characteristics of each scenario, potential indicators that would predict specific outcomes, some possible variations in paths to unification, and some operational implications for the U.S. Army under different conditions and circumstances. The four scenarios (peaceful unification, collapse and absorption, unification through armed conflict, and disequilibrium and external intervention) highlight both the increasing vulnerabilities of the North Korean state and the substantial uncertainties that attach to each outcome and to the potential U.S. policy responses. These considerations impose major conceptual, policy, and operational challenges both in the near and middle term and in the postunification peninsular security environment. Each warrants an enhanced analysis and assessment effort, lest U.S. and ROK policymakers find themselves ill prepared for major challenges to alliance management and to the U.S. Army role in a future crisis.

Series Statement

• MR ; 1040-A
• Rand Corporation. Monograph report ; MR-1040-A.

Subject

• Korean reunification question (1945- )
• Wiedervereinigung
• Szenario
• Korea

Note

• "Prepared for the United States Army."
• "MR-1040-A."

Bibliography (note)

• Includes bibliographical references.

Additional Formats (note)

• Abstract and ordering information for all Rand publications as well as full text versions of selected publications available via the Internet at the publisher's website.

Contents

Chapter One: Introduction The Changing Peninsular Security Environment The Roles of Japan, China, and Russia Implications for U.S. and ROK Defense Planning South Korea's Economic Crisis and Its Security Ramifications -- Chapter Two: The North Korean Conundrum Pyongyang's Deepening Crisis The Strategic Consequences of North Korea's Economic Decline Impediments and Risks to a Reform Strategy The Soft and Hard Landing Debate Explaining Unification Scenarios -- Chapter Three: Scenario 1: Integration and Peaceful Unification Major Characteristics Potential Indicators Variations -- Chapter Four: Scenario 2: Collapse and Absorption Major Characteristics Potential Indicators Variations -- Chapter Five: Scenario 3: Unification Through Conflict Major Characteristics Potential Indicators Variations -- Chapter Six: Scenario 4: Disequilibrium and Potential External Intervention Major Characteristics Potential Indicators Variations -- Chapter Seven: Postunification Dynamics and their Regional Implications Assessing a Unified Korea's Interests Korea's Regional Role After Unification -- Chapter Eight: Implications for the Army Flexible Roles and Missions New Intelligence Demands Operational Requirements Integration and Peaceful Unification Collapse and Absorption Unification Through Conflict Disequilibrium and Potential External Intervention.

ISBN

• 0585243514
• 9780585243511
• 0833027212
• 9780833027214

LCCN

99013282

OCLC

• ocm40869678
• 40869678
• SCSB-14476879

Owning Institutions

Princeton University Library