Research Catalog

Title

Persistent forecasting of disruptive technologies : report 2 / Committee on Forecasting Future Disruptive Technologies, Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences, National Research Council of the National Academies.

Author

National Research Council (U.S.). Committee on Forecasting Future Disruptive Technologies.

Publication

Washington : National Academies Press, 2010.

Items in the Library & Off-site

Details

Description

xiv, 82 pages : color illustrations; 28 cm +

Summary

"The term 'disruptive technology' describes a technology that results in a sudden change affecting already established technologies or markets. Disruptive technologies cause one or more discontinuities in the normal evolutionary life cycle of technology. This may lead to an unexpected destabilization of an older technology order and an opportunity for new competitors to displace incumbents. Frequently cited examples include digital photography and desktop publishing. The first report of the series, Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies, discussed how technology forecasts were historically made, assessed various existing forecasting systems, and identified desirable attributes of a next-generation persistent long-term forecasting system for disruptive technologies. This second book attempts to sketch out high-level forecasting system designs. In addition, the book provides further evaluation of the system attributes defined in the first report, and evidence of the feasibility of creating a system with those attributes. Together, the reports are intended to help the Department of Defense and the intelligence community identify and develop a forecasting system that will assist in detecting and tracking global technology trends, producing persistent long-term forecasts of disruptive technologies, and characterizing their potential impact on future U.S. warfighting and homeland defense capabilities."--Publisher's description.

Subject

• Technological forecasting
• Disruptive technologies
• Technological innovations

Note

• Accompanying CD-ROM contains figures (JPEG images) from chapter 2 and appendix F and transcripts (PDF files) from appendixes D and E.

Bibliography (note)

• Includes bibliographical references.

Contents

SUMMARY -- 1. INTRODUCTION -- 2. MODEL DESIGN OPTIONS FOR FORECASTING SYSTEMS: First forecasting system - intelligence cycle option -- Second forecasting system - roadmapping option -- Third forecasting system - crowdsourced option -- Fourth forecasting system - storytelling option -- Evaluation of models and the activity -- 3. ANALYSIS AND FINAL THOUGHTS: Can a next-generation persistent disruptive technology forecasting system be build using exiting technologies and methods? -- Features of a next-generation system -- Characteristics of a next-generation forecasting system -- Laying a foundation for subsequent steps -- APPENDIXES.

ISBN

• 0309149045
• 9780309149044
• 0309383536
• 9780309383530

LCCN

• 2010283449
• 10.17226/12834

OCLC

• ocn655759744
• 655759744
• SCSB-9129081

Owning Institutions

Princeton University Library