Research Catalog

Statistical forecasting of bankruptcy of defense contractors : problems and prospects

Title: Statistical forecasting of bankruptcy of defense contractors : problems and prospects / Anthony G. Bower, Steven Garber.
Author: Bower, Anthony G.
Publication: Santa Monica, CA : Rand, 1994.

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Status	Format	Access	Call Number	Item Location
Request for On-site Use Request Scan How do I pick up this item and when will it be ready?	Text	Use in library	HD9743.U6 B63 1994	Off-site

Details

Additional Authors

Description

xv, 37 p. : ill.; 28 cm.

Summary

Declining revenues in the defense industry may eventually result in bankruptcies. This report considers whether a model could reliably predict defense contractors' bankruptcy. The authors find that models based on multivariate discriminant analysis or multiple linear regression analysis using financial data from nondefense firms are unlikely to perform well for defense firms. An approach using securities market information also appears unlikely to predict accurately. The authors conclude that subjective methods of pro forma analysis and expert financial judgment remain more promising. However, they suggest that methods unreliable for estimating bankruptcy probabilities might be reliable enough to rank companies according to these probabilities. They also recommend that those attempting to develop objective models consider using bond yields and accounting data as predictor variables.

Subject

Note

"Project AIR FORCE."
"MR-410-AF."
"Prepared for the United States Air Force."

Bibliography (note)

Includes bibliographical references (p. 35-37).

ISBN

0833015249
9780833015242

LCCN

94005047

OCLC

ocm30026777
30026777
SCSB-2019866

Owning Institutions

Princeton University Library